True, North, Strong & Bananas.
Let me attempt to break down the issues at hand:
- Canada elected a minority Conservative government in October.
- The opposition parties, consisting of the Liberals (Moderates), New Democratic Party / NDP (Socialists) and Bloc Quebecois (Separatists) objected to the perceived lack of economic stimulus in a statement made by the Conservatives. (Apparently the Canadian economy is not immune to the toilet bowl swirl of the US market, although there are some differences: a viable banking sector, no real estate market collapse, record airline transportation rates, low government deficits . . . but I digress).
- Many claim the real reason, in addition to pure politics, is that the Conservatives are planning to eliminate public funding of political parties (which is something I’m against – despite what Obama was able to accomplish here without public financing).
- The unholy alliance of Liberals, Socialists and Separatists . . . oh my. . . (where’s a good Green Party Member of Parliament when you could use one?) have signed a pact to vote down the government and asked the Governor General (my friend Bucky claims “she’s hot” but he drank a lot of beer in his youth) to allow them to form the next government. Yes, in Canada they still have to ask a figurehead representative of the Queen (of England that is) permission to rule the land (and use the potty).
- In response the Conservatives have asked the Governor General to delay the opening of parliament until late January. As of today, it appears she has decided that not allowing anyone to legislate or debate in a legitimate forum is the right course of action for Canada.
So what have we learned from this quick look into the Canadian political landscape?
See John Stewart’s now prophetic summary of the lamo cast of Canadian politicians who are playing out this drama . . . . ironically not available in Canada, pity.
View this blog post “Election Prediction: Obama Wins (364)” on my new blog site at SmokeJumperStrategy.com/blog.
As of 8:30am PDT, my prediction is that Barack Obama will win the election this evening to make U.S. Presidential history.
I have been following the ups and downs of both candidates in the polls for months via Slate’s Poll Tracker ’08 application on my iPhone. Rather than looking at polls that calculate popularity of the candidates on a national level, Poll Tracker takes the latest poll in each state and makes a estimate of electoral college votes. This, in the end, is how the President is elected after all.
Each state and their electoral college votes are placed into one of three categories: safe, lean and tossup.
Here’s how the numbers breakdown and how I ended up with the prediction that Obama will win:
- Obama has 273 electoral college votes that are considered “safe” and another 18 (Virginia and Nevada) that are “leaning” his way. This totals 291. Only 270 are needed to win.
- Conversely McCain has 129 “safe” votes and “12” lean (Arizona and South Dakota); giving him 142 votes.
- 105 electoral college votes are considered “tossups”
Of the 105 “tossup” states, using the latest poll numbers in each state, I predict the following:
- Obama wins: Ohio, North Carolina, Florida and Missouri (adding an additional 73 electoral college votes to Obama)
- McCain wins: North Dakota, Montana, Georgia and Indiana (adding an additional 32 electoral college votes to McCain)
So if the “tossup” states fall as predicted above the final election tally will be:
- Obama/Biden 364
- McCain/Palin 174
Obama will win handily. Let the voting begin and (all) votes be counted!